Team Campsules (Nov 25, 2021)
ACC teams are 4-6 games into the season, so now is a good a time as ever to send out our first Team Capsules message.
Team Capsules will be, from this point forward, sent out weekly and detail where teams stand in the rankings, analytics, schedule, etc.
General ACC Notes
Duke is the only AP Top 25 team. They are also the only KenPom Top 25 team.
As of November 19, Joe Lundari has 6 ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament:
(1) Duke, (5) UNC, (7) FSU, (8) VT, (9) Cuse, (11) ND
I have a feeling this won’t look like this next week…
The ACC-Big Ten Challenge tips off next week. I’m predicting a 5-10 loss for the ACC. It’s just one of those seasons.
Winners
Clemson (at Rutgers), Duke (at Ohio St), Miami (at Penn State), NC State (vs. Nebraska), Virginia Tech (at Maryland)
Losers
UVA (vs. Iowa), Notre Dame (at Illinois), Florida State (at Purdue), Pitt (vs. Minnesota), Syracuse (vs. Indiana), Wake Forest (vs. Northwestern), Georgia Tech (vs. Wisconsin), Louisville (at MSU), UNC (vs. Michigan)
A lot of teams that have hidden behind lackluster schedules will start being tested this week and through December. No more hiding.
Team Capsules
Duke (6-0, 0-0)
AP Poll - 5th
KenPom - 8th overall, 8th offensively, 20th defensively
Bracketology - 1 seed vs. Wagner/Nicholls State
Last 3 Games
(220) Gardner-Webb (W 92-52)
(299) Lafayette (W 85-55)
(199) The Citadel (W 107-81)
Next 3 Games
Fri, 11/26 - (1) Gonzaga
Tues, 11/30 - (24) Ohio State on 11/30 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Tues, 12/14 - (351) South Carolina State
Notes and Thoughts
The Blue Devils have been the absolute best looking team in the ACC thus far. They have the biggest win in the conference (which isn’t saying much), they’ve been the most dominant, and they’re the highest rated just about everywhere. We will learn a lot about Duke this week as they play two KenPom Top 25 teams in Gonzaga and Ohio State. After those two games, it’s easy sledding until around Christmas time when ACC play picks up.
Virginia Tech (5-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - 27th
KenPom - 26th overall, 30th offensively, 27th defensively
Bracketology - 8 seed vs. Arizona
Last 3 Games
(263) St. Francis PA (W 85-55)
(225) Merrimack (W 72-43)
(11) Memphis (L 61-69)
Next 3 Games
Fri, 11/26 - (38) Xavier
Wed, 12-1 (41) Maryland
Sat, 12/4 - (92) Wake Forest
Notes and Thoughts
The Hokies have had, outside of Memphis, a cakewalk of a schedule thus far. I still think they are probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference, but they haven’t been challenged up until this point. That’s about to change as they play 2 top 50 teams in Xavier and Maryland next before an early ACC contest against Wake Forest. The verdict is still out on the Hokies, but they look better than everyone else (besides Duke) in the conference right now.
Florida State (5-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - 39th
KenPom - 28th overall, 42nd offensively, 22 defensively
Bracketology - 7 seed vs. WVU
Last 3 Games
(87) Loyola Marymount (W 73-45)
(118) Missouri (W 81-58)
(147) Boston University (W 81-80 in OT)
Next 3 Games
Tues, 11/30 at (3) Purdue
Sat, Dec 4 vs. (58) Syracuse
Sun, Dec 12 vs. (79) South Carolina
Notes and Thoughts
FSU has had an interesting season so far…especially for a 5-1 team. They have a few beatdowns (Penn, Loyola Marymount, Missouri), got smoked by Florida, and survived Tulane and Boston University. I’m not sure what to make of this team yet…but…when you look at the rest of the ACC, I think it’s safe to say they are a step above the rest of the next tier.
Notre Dame (3-2, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 40th overall, 17th offensively, 85th defensively
Bracketology - 11 seed vs. San Diego State (First Four)
Last 3 Games
(37) Saint Mary’s (L 59-62)
(NR) Chaminade (W 90-64)
(66) Texas A&M (L 67-73)
Next 3 Games
Mon, 11/29 at (15) Illinois in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Fri, 12/3 at (133) Boston College
Sat, 12/11 vs. (16) Kentucky
Notes and Thoughts
Notre Dame is another hard team to figure out. KenPom has them as the 4th best team in the league right now, but they have been anything but consistent or impressive thus far. They lost two close games to Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M in the Maui Invitational…and haven’t really looked particularly solid in losses. I think this is a team that is still trying to find themselves and could be a tough team to beat come late January/February.
Statistically, they have been one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the NCAA so far this season (ranked 281)…AND…one of the worst shooting teams from 3 as well (ranked 353). That’s not a great combination.
Clemson (4-2, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 45th overall, 54th offensively, 49th defensively
Bracketology - N/A
Last 3 Games
(128) Temple (W 75-48)
(29) St. Bonaventure (L 65-68)
(44) West Virginia (L 59-66)
Next 3 Games
Fri, Nov 26 vs. (339) Charleston Southern
Tues, Nov 30 at (94) Rutgers in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Sat, Dec 4 at (84) Miami
Notes and Thoughts
This is ANOTHER team that is hard to understand so far in this early season. The Tigers could VERY easily be 6-0 and on the hype machine right now…but they dropped considerable leads against both St. Bonaventure and WVU. They’re playing slow (322nd) and shooting it very well with a eFG clip of 59.2% (9th in country) and 44.8% from 3 (4th in country). The Tigers just haven’t been able to close out the end of games this season yet.
Virginia (4-2, 0-0)
AP Poll - N/A
KenPom - 47th overall, 96th offensively, 28th defensively
Bracketology - Next 4 Out
Last 3 Games
(330) Coppin State (W 68-52)
(170) Georgia (W 65-55)
(75) Providence (W 58-40)
Next 3 Games
Fri, Nov 26 vs. (290) Lehigh
Mon, Nov 29 vs. (25) Iowa in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Fri, Dec 3 vs. (183) Pittsburgh
Notes and Thoughts
The Cavaliers had a rocky start after dropping their home opener to Navy and getting thumped at Houston early in the season. They have recovered decently with wins against Georgia and Providence. Again, these are games they should win…but they needed a boost. Expect the Cavaliers to get tougher as the year goes on and the team gels.
Louisville (3-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 49th overall, 81st offensively, 38th defensively
Bracketology - First Four Out
Last 3 Games
(42) Furman (L 72-80)
(150) Navy (W 77-60)
(216) Detroit Mercy (W 73-67)
Next 3 Games
Wed, Dec 1 at (20) Michigan State in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Sat, Dec 4 at (67) NC State
Fri, Dec 10 vs. (123) DePaul
Notes and Thoughts
The Cardinals have played a rather uninspiring schedule thus far. They haven’t particularly looked that great either - losing to Furman at home and struggling with Detroit-Mercy. They’ll face some tougher challenges over the next few days as they take on Mississippi State (in progress as of this writing), Michigan State, and NC State. It’s hard to say much about Louisville since they’ve played next to nobody.
North Carolina (4-2, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 52nd overall, 15th offensively, 121st defensively
Bracketology - 5 seed vs. Belmont
Last 3 Games
(3) Purdue (L 84-93)
(12) Tennessee (L 72-89)
(283) UNC Asheville (W 72-53)
Next 3 Games
Wed, Dec 1 vs. (6) Michigan in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Sun, Dec 5 at (60) Georgia Tech
Sat, Dec 11 vs. (236) Elon
Notes and Thoughts
UNC has one of the widest gaps in the country between offensive efficiency (15th) and defensive efficiency (121st). That’s been the story all season. They gave up 87 to Brown, 93 to Purdue, 89 to Tennessee, and 83 to Charleston. That’s going to have to change…and quick…before ACC play begins. I’m interested to see what the new UNC staff does to make adjustments defensively.
As of note, I believe Joe Lunardi has UNC incredibly overrated as a 5 seed (?!?) in his latest bracket and definitely fall more in line with where KenPom has them.
Syracuse (2-2, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 58th overall, 29th offensively, 114th defensively
Bracketology - 9th seed vs. Indiana
Last 3 Games
(173) Drexel (W 75-60)
(111) Colgate (L 85-100)
(98) VCU (55-67)
Next 3 Games
Tues, Nov 30 vs. (31) Indiana in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Sat, Dec 4 at (28) Florida State
Tues, Dec 7 vs. (7) Villanova
Notes and Thoughts
Syracuse started the season shooting well…but this is another example of a team that is playing well offensively (29th) and defending horrendously (114th). They gave up 100 to Colgate and gave up 67 to a VCU team that has struggled to score all year. And guess what? The Orange have a lot of trouble coming their way as they finish up the Battle 4 Atlantis and then take on Indiana, Florida State, and Villanova. Yikes. Look for a lot of people to be jumping off the Syracuse bandwagon in the next few weeks. They do not look like an NCAAT right now.
Georgia Tech (4-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 60th overall, 62nd offensively, 66th defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(279) Lamar (W 75-66)
(170) Georgia (W 88-78)
(339) Charleston Southern (W 85-70)
Next 3 Games
Fri, Nov 26 vs. (227) Georgia Southern
Wed, Dec 1 vs. (31) Wisconsin
Sun, Dec 5 vs. (52) UNC
Notes and Thoughts
Georgia Tech has only played one team in the top 150 (Miami, OH) and lost that game at home. There’s still a lot to be learned about the Yellow Jackets right now. I think this is a team that can make some moves as the season progresses…especially in such a weak conference. We will learn a lot about GT very quickly (games against Wisconsin, UNC, LSU, and USC loom on the horizon).
N.C. State (5-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 67th overall, 72nd offensively, 73rd defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(348) Central Connecticut State (W 79-62)
(35) Oklahoma State (L 68-74)
(221) Texas Southern (65-57)
Next 3 Games
Sat, 11/27 vs. (100) Louisiana Tech
Wed, 12/1 vs. (104) Nebraska
Sat, 12/4 vs. (49) Louisville
Notes and Thoughts
NC State has a decent win over Colgate (ask Syracuse) and a tough loss to Oklahoma State outside of a bunch of cupcakes. The rest of the non-conference schedule is manageable outside of a game against Purdue. I’m still interested to see how this team works without Manny Bates but think the Pack are a sleeper to move up the ACC standings…and maybe sneak into the NCAAT.
Miami (3-1, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 84th overall, 63rd offensively, 111th defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(54) UCF (L 89-95)
(205) Florida Atlantic (W 68-66)
(292) Florida A&M (W 86-59)
Next 3 Games
Wed, 12/1 at (90) Penn State in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Sat, 12/4 vs. (45) Clemson
Wed, 12/8 vs. (200) Lipscomb
Notes and Thoughts
We don’t know much about the Hurricanes either outside of their loss to UCF. They needed a buzzer beater to escape Florida Atlantic. In actuality, their non-conference schedule is pretty tame but…even against an easy schedule…the Canes are struggling defensively (111th in country).
Wake Forest (5-0, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 92nd overall, 91st offensively, 94th defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(339) Charleston Southern (W 95-59)
(257) North Carolina A&T (W 87-63)
(291) Kennesaw State (W 92-61)
Next 3 Games
Fri, Nov 26 vs. (103) Oregon State
Tues, Nov 30 vs. (42) Northwestern in ACC/Big Ten challenge
Sat, Dec 4 at (26) Virginia Tech
Notes and Thoughts
Okay, Wake Forest…you’re 5-0 and smoking everybody…but you haven’t played a top 250 team yet (how is this even possible?!?). The Deacons face 103rd Oregon State, 42nd Northwestern, and 26th Virginia Tech next…so the realness is about to be seen. Can the Deacons be a surprise ACC team? Talk to me in a few weeks.
Boston College (3-3, 0-0)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 133rd overall, 138th offensively, 133rd defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(99) Rhode Island (L 49-57)
(69) Utah (L 61-68)
(99) Rhode Island (L 65-71)
Next 3 Games
Fri, 11/26 vs. (336) Columbia
Mon, 11/29 vs. (196) South Florida
Fri, 12/3 vs. (40) Notre Dame
Notes and Thoughts
Boston College faithful were pretty hyped up after the beginning of the season and 3 meaningless wins…but the hype wagon has settled down since the Eagles dropped the next 3. They have winnable games against Columbia and USF coming up before they start to dive into the ACC schedule. Earl Grant can’t work miracles in one year though.
Pittsburgh (2-3)
AP Poll - NR
KenPom - 183rd overall, 231st offensively, 137th defensively
Bracketology - NA
Last 3 Games
(275) UNC-Wilmington (W 59-51)
(195) Towson (W 63-59)
(72) Vanderbilt (L 52-68)
Next 3 Games
Sat, 11/27 vs. (222) UMBC
Tues, 11/30 vs. (101) Minnesota
Fri, 12/3 at (47) UVA
Notes and Thoughts
I don’t know any other way to say this except that Pittsburgh is the worst Power-6 team in the country. They’re OKAY defensively, but man they struggle on the offensive end of the floor…and they turn it over A LOT. I don’t know what Panthers are going to do to win games, but they better figure it out quick or it’s going to be another long year for Coach Capel.
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