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Team Campsules (Nov 25, 2021)
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Team Campsules (Nov 25, 2021)

ACC Hoops Playbook
Nov 25, 2021
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ACC teams are 4-6 games into the season, so now is a good a time as ever to send out our first Team Capsules message.

Team Capsules will be, from this point forward, sent out weekly and detail where teams stand in the rankings, analytics, schedule, etc.

General ACC Notes

  • Duke is the only AP Top 25 team. They are also the only KenPom Top 25 team.

  • As of November 19, Joe Lundari has 6 ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament:

    • (1) Duke, (5) UNC, (7) FSU, (8) VT, (9) Cuse, (11) ND

    • I have a feeling this won’t look like this next week…

  • The ACC-Big Ten Challenge tips off next week. I’m predicting a 5-10 loss for the ACC. It’s just one of those seasons.

    • Winners

      • Clemson (at Rutgers), Duke (at Ohio St), Miami (at Penn State), NC State (vs. Nebraska), Virginia Tech (at Maryland)

    • Losers

      • UVA (vs. Iowa), Notre Dame (at Illinois), Florida State (at Purdue), Pitt (vs. Minnesota), Syracuse (vs. Indiana), Wake Forest (vs. Northwestern), Georgia Tech (vs. Wisconsin), Louisville (at MSU), UNC (vs. Michigan)

  • A lot of teams that have hidden behind lackluster schedules will start being tested this week and through December. No more hiding.

Team Capsules

  1. Duke (6-0, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - 5th

    • KenPom - 8th overall, 8th offensively, 20th defensively

    • Bracketology - 1 seed vs. Wagner/Nicholls State

    • Last 3 Games

      • (220) Gardner-Webb (W 92-52)

      • (299) Lafayette (W 85-55)

      • (199) The Citadel (W 107-81)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, 11/26 - (1) Gonzaga

      • Tues, 11/30 - (24) Ohio State on 11/30 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Tues, 12/14 - (351) South Carolina State

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • The Blue Devils have been the absolute best looking team in the ACC thus far. They have the biggest win in the conference (which isn’t saying much), they’ve been the most dominant, and they’re the highest rated just about everywhere. We will learn a lot about Duke this week as they play two KenPom Top 25 teams in Gonzaga and Ohio State. After those two games, it’s easy sledding until around Christmas time when ACC play picks up.

  2. Virginia Tech (5-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - 27th

    • KenPom - 26th overall, 30th offensively, 27th defensively

    • Bracketology - 8 seed vs. Arizona

    • Last 3 Games

      • (263) St. Francis PA (W 85-55)

      • (225) Merrimack (W 72-43)

      • (11) Memphis (L 61-69)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, 11/26 - (38) Xavier

      • Wed, 12-1 (41) Maryland

      • Sat, 12/4 - (92) Wake Forest

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • The Hokies have had, outside of Memphis, a cakewalk of a schedule thus far. I still think they are probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference, but they haven’t been challenged up until this point. That’s about to change as they play 2 top 50 teams in Xavier and Maryland next before an early ACC contest against Wake Forest. The verdict is still out on the Hokies, but they look better than everyone else (besides Duke) in the conference right now.

  3. Florida State (5-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - 39th

    • KenPom - 28th overall, 42nd offensively, 22 defensively

    • Bracketology - 7 seed vs. WVU

    • Last 3 Games

      • (87) Loyola Marymount (W 73-45)

      • (118) Missouri (W 81-58)

      • (147) Boston University (W 81-80 in OT)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Tues, 11/30 at (3) Purdue

      • Sat, Dec 4 vs. (58) Syracuse

      • Sun, Dec 12 vs. (79) South Carolina

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • FSU has had an interesting season so far…especially for a 5-1 team. They have a few beatdowns (Penn, Loyola Marymount, Missouri), got smoked by Florida, and survived Tulane and Boston University. I’m not sure what to make of this team yet…but…when you look at the rest of the ACC, I think it’s safe to say they are a step above the rest of the next tier.

  4. Notre Dame (3-2, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 40th overall, 17th offensively, 85th defensively

    • Bracketology - 11 seed vs. San Diego State (First Four)

    • Last 3 Games

      • (37) Saint Mary’s (L 59-62)

      • (NR) Chaminade (W 90-64)

      • (66) Texas A&M (L 67-73)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Mon, 11/29 at (15) Illinois in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Fri, 12/3 at (133) Boston College

      • Sat, 12/11 vs. (16) Kentucky

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • Notre Dame is another hard team to figure out. KenPom has them as the 4th best team in the league right now, but they have been anything but consistent or impressive thus far. They lost two close games to Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M in the Maui Invitational…and haven’t really looked particularly solid in losses. I think this is a team that is still trying to find themselves and could be a tough team to beat come late January/February.

      • Statistically, they have been one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the NCAA so far this season (ranked 281)…AND…one of the worst shooting teams from 3 as well (ranked 353). That’s not a great combination.

  5. Clemson (4-2, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 45th overall, 54th offensively, 49th defensively

    • Bracketology - N/A

    • Last 3 Games

      • (128) Temple (W 75-48)

      • (29) St. Bonaventure (L 65-68)

      • (44) West Virginia (L 59-66)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, Nov 26 vs. (339) Charleston Southern

      • Tues, Nov 30 at (94) Rutgers in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Sat, Dec 4 at (84) Miami

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • This is ANOTHER team that is hard to understand so far in this early season. The Tigers could VERY easily be 6-0 and on the hype machine right now…but they dropped considerable leads against both St. Bonaventure and WVU. They’re playing slow (322nd) and shooting it very well with a eFG clip of 59.2% (9th in country) and 44.8% from 3 (4th in country). The Tigers just haven’t been able to close out the end of games this season yet.

  6. Virginia (4-2, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - N/A

    • KenPom - 47th overall, 96th offensively, 28th defensively

    • Bracketology - Next 4 Out

    • Last 3 Games

      • (330) Coppin State (W 68-52)

      • (170) Georgia (W 65-55)

      • (75) Providence (W 58-40)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, Nov 26 vs. (290) Lehigh

      • Mon, Nov 29 vs. (25) Iowa in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Fri, Dec 3 vs. (183) Pittsburgh

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • The Cavaliers had a rocky start after dropping their home opener to Navy and getting thumped at Houston early in the season. They have recovered decently with wins against Georgia and Providence. Again, these are games they should win…but they needed a boost. Expect the Cavaliers to get tougher as the year goes on and the team gels.

  7. Louisville (3-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 49th overall, 81st offensively, 38th defensively

    • Bracketology - First Four Out

    • Last 3 Games

      • (42) Furman (L 72-80)

      • (150) Navy (W 77-60)

      • (216) Detroit Mercy (W 73-67)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Wed, Dec 1 at (20) Michigan State in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Sat, Dec 4 at (67) NC State

      • Fri, Dec 10 vs. (123) DePaul

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • The Cardinals have played a rather uninspiring schedule thus far. They haven’t particularly looked that great either - losing to Furman at home and struggling with Detroit-Mercy. They’ll face some tougher challenges over the next few days as they take on Mississippi State (in progress as of this writing), Michigan State, and NC State. It’s hard to say much about Louisville since they’ve played next to nobody.

  8. North Carolina (4-2, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 52nd overall, 15th offensively, 121st defensively

    • Bracketology - 5 seed vs. Belmont

    • Last 3 Games

      • (3) Purdue (L 84-93)

      • (12) Tennessee (L 72-89)

      • (283) UNC Asheville (W 72-53)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Wed, Dec 1 vs. (6) Michigan in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Sun, Dec 5 at (60) Georgia Tech

      • Sat, Dec 11 vs. (236) Elon

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • UNC has one of the widest gaps in the country between offensive efficiency (15th) and defensive efficiency (121st). That’s been the story all season. They gave up 87 to Brown, 93 to Purdue, 89 to Tennessee, and 83 to Charleston. That’s going to have to change…and quick…before ACC play begins. I’m interested to see what the new UNC staff does to make adjustments defensively.

      • As of note, I believe Joe Lunardi has UNC incredibly overrated as a 5 seed (?!?) in his latest bracket and definitely fall more in line with where KenPom has them.

  9. Syracuse (2-2, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 58th overall, 29th offensively, 114th defensively

    • Bracketology - 9th seed vs. Indiana

    • Last 3 Games

      • (173) Drexel (W 75-60)

      • (111) Colgate (L 85-100)

      • (98) VCU (55-67)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Tues, Nov 30 vs. (31) Indiana in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Sat, Dec 4 at (28) Florida State

      • Tues, Dec 7 vs. (7) Villanova

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • Syracuse started the season shooting well…but this is another example of a team that is playing well offensively (29th) and defending horrendously (114th). They gave up 100 to Colgate and gave up 67 to a VCU team that has struggled to score all year. And guess what? The Orange have a lot of trouble coming their way as they finish up the Battle 4 Atlantis and then take on Indiana, Florida State, and Villanova. Yikes. Look for a lot of people to be jumping off the Syracuse bandwagon in the next few weeks. They do not look like an NCAAT right now.

  10. Georgia Tech (4-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 60th overall, 62nd offensively, 66th defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (279) Lamar (W 75-66)

      • (170) Georgia (W 88-78)

      • (339) Charleston Southern (W 85-70)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, Nov 26 vs. (227) Georgia Southern

      • Wed, Dec 1 vs. (31) Wisconsin

      • Sun, Dec 5 vs. (52) UNC

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • Georgia Tech has only played one team in the top 150 (Miami, OH) and lost that game at home. There’s still a lot to be learned about the Yellow Jackets right now. I think this is a team that can make some moves as the season progresses…especially in such a weak conference. We will learn a lot about GT very quickly (games against Wisconsin, UNC, LSU, and USC loom on the horizon).

  11. N.C. State (5-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 67th overall, 72nd offensively, 73rd defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (348) Central Connecticut State (W 79-62)

      • (35) Oklahoma State (L 68-74)

      • (221) Texas Southern (65-57)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Sat, 11/27 vs. (100) Louisiana Tech

      • Wed, 12/1 vs. (104) Nebraska

      • Sat, 12/4 vs. (49) Louisville

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • NC State has a decent win over Colgate (ask Syracuse) and a tough loss to Oklahoma State outside of a bunch of cupcakes. The rest of the non-conference schedule is manageable outside of a game against Purdue. I’m still interested to see how this team works without Manny Bates but think the Pack are a sleeper to move up the ACC standings…and maybe sneak into the NCAAT.

  12. Miami (3-1, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 84th overall, 63rd offensively, 111th defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (54) UCF (L 89-95)

      • (205) Florida Atlantic (W 68-66)

      • (292) Florida A&M (W 86-59)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Wed, 12/1 at (90) Penn State in ACC/Big Ten Challenge

      • Sat, 12/4 vs. (45) Clemson

      • Wed, 12/8 vs. (200) Lipscomb

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • We don’t know much about the Hurricanes either outside of their loss to UCF. They needed a buzzer beater to escape Florida Atlantic. In actuality, their non-conference schedule is pretty tame but…even against an easy schedule…the Canes are struggling defensively (111th in country).

  13. Wake Forest (5-0, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 92nd overall, 91st offensively, 94th defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (339) Charleston Southern (W 95-59)

      • (257) North Carolina A&T (W 87-63)

      • (291) Kennesaw State (W 92-61)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, Nov 26 vs. (103) Oregon State

      • Tues, Nov 30 vs. (42) Northwestern in ACC/Big Ten challenge

      • Sat, Dec 4 at (26) Virginia Tech

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • Okay, Wake Forest…you’re 5-0 and smoking everybody…but you haven’t played a top 250 team yet (how is this even possible?!?). The Deacons face 103rd Oregon State, 42nd Northwestern, and 26th Virginia Tech next…so the realness is about to be seen. Can the Deacons be a surprise ACC team? Talk to me in a few weeks.

  14. Boston College (3-3, 0-0)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 133rd overall, 138th offensively, 133rd defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (99) Rhode Island (L 49-57)

      • (69) Utah (L 61-68)

      • (99) Rhode Island (L 65-71)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Fri, 11/26 vs. (336) Columbia

      • Mon, 11/29 vs. (196) South Florida

      • Fri, 12/3 vs. (40) Notre Dame

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • Boston College faithful were pretty hyped up after the beginning of the season and 3 meaningless wins…but the hype wagon has settled down since the Eagles dropped the next 3. They have winnable games against Columbia and USF coming up before they start to dive into the ACC schedule. Earl Grant can’t work miracles in one year though.

  15. Pittsburgh (2-3)

    • AP Poll - NR

    • KenPom - 183rd overall, 231st offensively, 137th defensively

    • Bracketology - NA

    • Last 3 Games

      • (275) UNC-Wilmington (W 59-51)

      • (195) Towson (W 63-59)

      • (72) Vanderbilt (L 52-68)

    • Next 3 Games

      • Sat, 11/27 vs. (222) UMBC

      • Tues, 11/30 vs. (101) Minnesota

      • Fri, 12/3 at (47) UVA

    • Notes and Thoughts

      • I don’t know any other way to say this except that Pittsburgh is the worst Power-6 team in the country. They’re OKAY defensively, but man they struggle on the offensive end of the floor…and they turn it over A LOT. I don’t know what Panthers are going to do to win games, but they better figure it out quick or it’s going to be another long year for Coach Capel.

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